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Thursday, October 28, 2004

BB/100
My last post was prompted in part by SirFWALGMan's post yesterday that he's a got a BB/100 hands rate of 4.89 over 2700+ hands at Party $2/$4. That prompted me to look up my own stat, which is 3.5 over 3500+ hands. Two thoughts then occurred to me. 1) I've been playing Party $2/$4 since July, so that's only 875 hands per month, 218 hands per week. I should play more, which was kinda the subject of my last post. 2) Not that I should be results-oriented or anything but is 3.5 a respectable win rate?

I went over to the forums at 2+2 to find out.

First thing I took from the posts there: 3500 hands is not nearly enough to be statistically meaningful. Damn those 2+2ers are stodgy about their statistics! You need like 100,000 hands for your sample size to be statistically significant, and by then you already know the answer to your question, or are beyond caring. That's one reason why I'm not much of a 2+2er. I much prefer the qualitative approach of the poker Blogosphere :-)

One thread I found was helpful. The thread is titled "2-4, 3-6, and 5-10" and was started on Oct. 22 (I don't know how to link to individual posts on 2+2). 2+2er Festus22 wrote:
For 2/4 in BB's/100,

1 - You're competent.

2 - You're good.

3 - You're excellent.

3.5+ - You're the man.

Subtract 0.25 to 0.50 from the above for each level up.

That's just a WAG.
I'm guessing "WAG" means wild-ass guess, but I'm not sure.

Then 2+2er Alobar said
1- You've read a book, and play tightly

2- you are decent

3- you are good

3.5+ why are you still playing 2/4?
Alobar is fueling my temptation to dabble in $3/$6! But honestly, I suspect my BB/100 rate may go down rather than up as my sample size becomes more statistically significant.

Finally, 2+2er bdk3clash says, "I think it's unproductive to fret about winrate and results when how you play is pretty much all you have control over." And of course he is right -- just sit down at every session and aim to make the correct decisions on every hand, and take confidence in your ability to do that rather than how much you won or lost. But it's nice to have some rough gauge of what the stats in Pokertracker indicate.

Comments:
Wow, 2 posts in one day? Brilliant... you're the man, cool guy.

My BB/100 at $2/4 is exactly 3.51 after 6000 hands. I think one should get to the 20,000 hands mark before the stats are "significant". 100,000 is just way too many hands to play, even for the semi-serious recreational player (ie. ME).
 
I think if your using Bankroll as a judge of going up a level.. I.E. 1800 and go for 3/6, then there is just no way you are ever going to get in 100,000 hands! If you even have a BB/100 of 1 it is only going to take you like 3000-4000 hands at most to get to the next level bankroll wise. I think I will stay in 3/6 a little longer. I *might* make the 3K necessary by the end of next month, but I hear 5/10 is a little tougher jump and I want to feel like my game has improved somewhere. It has been solid and steady since the end of 1/2. No real change. I am thinking of picking up a book on Mid-Level Holdem to see what more advanced concepts I need to learn. However, I do not think I have mastered the basic concepts yet (Like not being results oriented)! Good luck in 3/6!

My suggestions: As a matter of discipline do not go up until your bankroll can support it. Not even if you are a penny away!
 
Yup, I'll be sticking with 2/4 until the bankroll is at an appropriate level for 3/6. I highly recommend Ciaffone's Middle Limit Holdem Poker.
 
My BB/100 actually went up when I moved up to $3/6. I think this has a lot to do with me starting to play the Bad Beat Jackpot tables. I never did that at the $2/4 tables. The BBJ tables are incredibly soft.
 
To give you another perspective, my BB/100 was around 8 after my first couple of thousand hands. I'm over 11,000 now in Poker Tracker and my rate has plummeted to around 2 BB/100. So, definitely get the hands in before you move.

But, that seems to be the plan anyway, so just keep doin' what you're doin'.
 
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